Michigan State vs Alabama 1/1/2011

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Alabama is a heavy favorite winning 79% of simulations over Michigan State. Greg McElroy is averaging 239 passing yards and 1.6 TDs per simulation and Mark Ingram is projected for 111 rushing yards and a 68% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 21% of simulations where Michigan State wins, Kirk Cousins averages 1.9 TD passes vs 0.82 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.89 TDs to 1.03 interceptions. Edwin Baker averages 78 rushing yards and 0.63 rushing TDs when Michigan State wins and 66 yards and 0.33 TDs in losses. Alabama has a 41% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 88% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is ALA -10.5 --- Over/Under line is 50.5

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